Socialism on the Ballot

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Socialism on the Ballot

The socialist electoral calendar for 2023: Late April edition

April 27

Welcome to Socialism on the Ballot. Here’s a recap of the election days I profiled which have passed so far, and a more comprehensive update on the election days to look forward to. They are numerous and upcoming, and you probably don’t know about a lot of them.

Are more updates coming?

Yes. There are a lot of races with unclear incumbents which I’ve omitted here to prevent speculation; there are for example a dozen or more Connecticut and Massachusetts incumbents who would be up this year if they seek re-election, but it’s not clear yet if they will. I’m sure there are also a significant number of chapter endorsements still to be made, as only 54 endorsements have been made by DSA chapters that I’m aware of. The next forthcoming update to this post should be in June or so, depending. I think by then it will be much more clear if the remaining people I’m thinking of are running or not.

Anyways:

Results to this point

Chicago: February 28 and April 4.

In the end, my prediction of a caucus expansion of 1 or 2 validated, although the one I expected to do best did not. Incumbents Daniel La Spata (Ward 1), Jeanette Taylor (Ward 20), Byron Sigcho Lopez (Ward 25), Rossana Rodriguez-Sanchez (Ward 33), and Carlos Ramirez-Rosa (Ward 35) all won re-election, while in an April runoff Angela Clay (Ward 46) won her race.

Non-incumbents Oscar Sanchez (Ward 10), Ambria Taylor (Ward 11), Warren Williams (Ward 30), and Nick Ward (Ward 48) all lost. Mueze Bawany, who had his endorsement rescinded, also got crushed in his race.

Burlington: March 7.

Rhone Allison, a Champlain Valley DSA member, lost her race by around 55-45, an unfortunate dropping of the ball for the Vermont Progressives in a seat they usually do very well in. This means that CVDSA’s footprint remains confined to legislative seats.

Oxnard, CA: March 7.

Michaela Perez also lost her race for Oxnard City Council District 6 to Arthur Valenzuela, Jr., but apparently this didn’t matter in the end. Valenzuela Jr., like Perez, is also a member of Ventura County DSA, so they still carried the seat. Congratulations guys.

St. Louis: March 7 and April 4.

Katie Bellis, who was backed by St. Louis DSA in City Council Ward 2 did not come particularly close despite the use of approval voting—but, that was not a big surprise, as Ward 2 has been a historically difficult ward for the chapter. Their consolation is the uncontested (re-)election of Megan Ellyia Green to the second highest position in the city, the prospect of which I talked about at length in a previous post on here.

Milwaukee DSA: April 4.

Milwaukee DSA successfully elected Missy Zombor for Milwaukee Board of School Directors—making her their highest profile win in the city to date—but just narrowly missed out on electing Sam Harshner to the Shorewood Village Trustee Board. Still, the results are very promising in the latter case and speak to growing strength for the chapter outside of the city proper. Look out for them in the cycles to come.

Denver: April 4 and June 6.

Denver DSA is guaranteed to at least hold serve in electing Sarah Parady to the City Council through an at-large seat, but will have to win three runoffs to expand their footprint. Shontel Lewis (District 8), incumbent Candi CdeBaca (District 9), and Shannon Hoffman (District 10) all face June runoffs, and it’s not immediately clear if any or all of them are favored.

Tiffany Caudill (District 2) and Tony Pigford (District 4) both lost their respective races, as did Lisa Calderon (Mayor) who the chapter endorsed late.

Upcoming races.

And now, the upcoming races that I’m aware of which have known dates.

West Lafayette, IN: May 2.

Incumbent DSA member James Blanco is running for re-election to the West Lafayette City Council. He faces nominal opposition in the primary—his city council seat is one of the city’s three at-large seats, and four candidates counting him have filed—but I would assume he is favored as an incumbent. If he wins he will be unopposed, as it does not appear any Republicans filed for West Lafayette’s at-large seats.

San Antonio and South Houston: (Saturday,) May 6 and June 10.

San Antonio is holding its general elections on May 6, which you may notice breaks from the tradition of Tuesday elections in being held on a Saturday. San Antonio DSA’s two incumbent members, Jalen McKee-Rodriguez (District 2) and Teri Castillo (District 5), are up that day. If they fail to clear a majority of the vote, they will go to runoffs on June 10.

South Houston also has municipal races on May 6—Houston DSA-endorsed Sophia Saenz is running for the mayoral position there.

Delaware: May 9.

In Delaware, DSA Delaware endorsee and member Douglas Manley is running for a four-year term on the Christina School Board. He has one opponent, Christine A. Gilbert, and the chapter thinks he’s heavily favored to win the seat.

Philadelphia, Pittsburgh: May 16.

Philadelphia DSA, as noted previously, has four races it’s endorsed in and those will take place during statewide primary on May 16. David McMahon (Norristown City Council D2), Andres Celin (Philadelphia City Council D7), Seth Anderson-Oberman (Philadelphia City Council D8), and Amanda McIllmurray (Philadelphia City Council at-large) are all running with chapter backing. McIllmurray and McMahon are both chapter members; I remain unsure of Celin and Anderson-Oberman’s affiliation, but I suspect they are not members.

Pittsburgh DSA has a slate of three which I have not mentioned. That slate currently includes Darwin Leuba (Allegheny County Controller), Dennis McDermott (Allegheny County Council D11), and Deb Gross (Pittsburgh City Council D7). Leuba and McDermott are members of the local chapter; Gross is not, to my knowledge.

Charlottesville: June 20.

Incumbent and DSA member Michael Payne (City Council) is running for re-election this year; there are five Democrats running for three primary seats here. He should advance and as of today is the second biggest fundraiser in the race, although it’s early.

New York: June 27.

More New York endorsements are probably forthcoming—I assume DSA members Tiffany Caban (New York City Council District 22) and Alexa Aviles (District 38) will receive re-election support—but for the time being only smaller chapters in the state have sought fit to endorse.

In upstate, Ithaca DSA is running a slate of five candidates: Phoebe Brown (an incumbent and member) and Kayla Matos in Common Council Ward 1, West Fox in Ward 2, Nathan Sitaraman in Ward 3 (a member), and George Defendini (another incumbent and member) in Ward 4.

In Syracuse, Syracuse DSA has endorsed chapter member Maurice Brown for Onondaga County Legislature District 15.

In Rochester, the chapter has endorsed three candidates—and has stated they may endorse more in May. Two of their endorsements are for Monroe County Legislature: Oscar Brewer (District 21) and incumbent Carolyn Delvecchio Hoffman (District 25). Hoffman is a member of the chapter. They’ve also endorsed Rachel Rosner for Brighton Town Board, and hope she will join chapter member Robin Wilt there. I would assume any further endorsements will include chapter member Mary Lupien, who serves on the Rochester City Council and is up this year.

Also on the non-endorsed side of things, DSA member Alexandria Wojcik (New Paltz, NY Board of Trustees) is running for re-election. So are Megan Deichler (Poughkeepsie City Council District 8) and Dan Aymar-Blair (Beacon City Council District 4), both members of the organization and incumbents of their respective positions.

Nashville: (Thursday,) August 3.

DSA member and incumbent Sean Parker is seeking re-election for his Nashville City Council seat. It does not appear he has any challengers, and so the number of DSA elected officials in-state will remain at least 1.

Knoxville: August 29.

In another Tennessee race, DSA member and incumbent Amelia Parker (no relation) is seeking re-election to her Knoxville City Council seat. Unlike Sean Parker, she has a lot of competition for this seat, mostly from hard-right challengers with lots of money to throw into the race—it’s unclear if she’ll be able to prevail, but one can hope and help.

Minneapolis (MN), St. Paul (MN), Aurora (CO): November 7.

In Minneapolis and St. Paul, municipal elections are held on Election Day; accordingly, the Twin Cities DSA slate will be up at the end of the year. It currently consists of 7 candidates. For Minneapolis City Council, incumbents and DSA members Robin Wonsley (Ward 2), Jason Chavez (Ward 9), and Aisha Chughtai (Ward 10) will all be up for re-election; they hope to be joined by newcomers Soren Stevenson (Ward 8) and Aurin Chowdhury (Ward 12), both of whom are also DSA members. For St. Paul’s city council, incumbent and DSA member Nelsie Yang (Ward 6) is seeking re-election, and the chapter hopes to elect non-member Hwa Jeong Kim (Ward 5) to join her.

In Colorado, DSA member Juan Marcano is seeking the mayoral position in Aurora; he was originally elected to City Council District 4. Fellow member Alison Coombs also seems to be seeking re-election for City Council District 5.

Brief November 8th post-mortem

Alyaza Birze November 12. 2022.

Votes are still being tallied, and a bunch of races are still not called, but with four days between election day and now, it is safe to say that socialists up and down the ballot have won pretty impressive gains.

In DSA member races, the win rate stands at 88.7%—94 wins, 12 losses, with 17 still undetermined.

Non-member races stand at a win rate of 72.2%—13 wins, 5 losses, and still 15 undetermined.

The overall win rate, thus, is 86.2% right now—107 wins, 17 losses, 32 undetermined.

Endorsed, incumbent DSA members posted not a single loss, going 26 for 26.

Non-endorsed, incumbent DSA members look certain to go at least 24 for 25, with the only odd one out being DaSean Jones, of Texas’s 180th District Court. As of writing, he is probably the only DSA incumbent who will lose—and if he does, it will be by no more than 0.04% and a few hundred votes out of over a million cast.

As for non-incumbents: at least 42 DSA members have been newly elected this cycle and these break an even 21 endorsed, 21 non-endorsed. If DaSean Jones scrapes a few hundred votes out and wins his race, the net gain here would stand at a minimum +42 DSA—otherwise, it will be a minimum of +41 DSA. This will comfortably put DSA above 300 members in elected offices.

The incoming class of DSA members, as of writing, will be as follows:

Endorsed

and Darrin Madison, Jr. for WI AD-10

Non-endorsed

and Farrah Chaichi for OR HD-35[1]

Where will socialists be on the ballot in November? And what are their prospects?

A post on the possible extent of the socialist wave in November

Alyaza Birze October 10 2022.

Updates: A few minor typos and stylistic things fixed. Added Jamaal Bowman and Grayson Lookner, who were previously omitted accidentally. Flipped the four other Berkeley Rent Board candidates to member-candidates. Added Iowa City DSA member and elected official Jonathan Green, who was previously unknown to me. Flipped Katie Sims to member-candidate. Added loose Boston DSA member Mike Connolly, New Hampshire DSA members Eric Gallager, Catherine Sofikitis, Ellen Read, and Metro DC DSA member Quentin Colon Roosevelt.

Welcome again to Socialism on the Ballot, folks. I don’t have a formal post going up this week or anything—although many continue to be in the works, rest assured—but I have spent much of this week getting information about DSA members I wasn’t previously aware of, and who are running around the country. So, I figure now is the best time to write something up covering the totality of that information in brief detail.

In total, I have at least 103 DSA members on the ballot, alongside another 16 non-member endorsements, plus two DSA member victories that have already occurred and are waiting to be seated. This sums up to 121 races that cover at least 24 states. Time permitting I’ll try to write up some posts which go more in-depth on areas this month, but for now here are the broad strokes. For shorthand purposes in this post, DSA members (endorsed or otherwise) are marked with 🌹 while non-members—even endorsed—are unmarked. Endorsements are noted where possible.

The personal projection

In my personal projection, a pretty middle-of-the-road outcome is achieved. Of the 119 races on the ballot in November, we are favored in 102 of them here.

In 89 of these races, the candidate is a DSA member, while in the remaining 13 the candidate is merely endorsed.

40 of these candidates would be new elected DSA member-officials, plus the two already elected.

This makes for a net gain of 21 on the year. We would go into 2023 with 305 officials in office.

The optimistic projection

In my most optimistic scenario, of the 119 races on the ballot in November, we would be favored in 114 of them(!). Only the following five races: Susan Clifford (Delaware HD-39); Joshua Bradley (Raleigh City Council at-large); Derek Marshall (California’s 23rd congressional district); Maebe A. Girl (California’s 30th congressional district); and David Schwartzman (DC Council at-large) are races I’d expect us to lose on a truly good night.

In 99 of those races, the candidate would be a DSA member, while in the remaining 15 the candidate would be merely endorsed.

52 of these candidates would be newly elected DSA member-officials, plus the two already elected.

This would make for a net gain of 34 on the year. We would go into 2023 with 317 officials in office.

In summary: the worst possible world still sees gains, by my measurement—but the ceiling here is extremely high, and could legitimately imperil the Libertarian Party’s status as the third largest political group holding elective office in the United States.

Now, for some brief specifics on each of these races. If you’d like more content of this sort, this would also be a good time to also hit the subscribe now button I’m placing here (or at the bottom of the post—whichever is more convenient).

The Candidates

California California has a wide number of our candidates on the ballot this year at all levels. In the state legislature, it’s a near certainty that California DSA chapters will double their presence, as Alex Lee (AD-24; 🌹) of Silicon Valley DSA will cruise to re-election and Corey Jackson (AD-60; 🌹) of Inland Empire DSA (who I wrote about last week) will join him. More grim are the prospects of Fatima Iqbal-Zubair (AD-65; 🌹), who I see as unlikely to prevail despite DSA Los Angeles backing her.

For Congressional races, four DSA members have made it to the general election. I personally do not have any of these four—Derek Marshall (CA-23; 🌹), Angelica Duenas CA-29; 🌹), Maebe A. Girl (CA-30; 🌹), and David Kim (CA-34; 🌹)—winning election and so this section is 0-and-4 to me, but there are cases to be made for Dueñas and Kim having paths to victory. Not coincidentally, both came close in 2020.

On the Los Angeles City Council, a DSA caucus of three is likely in November. Nithya Raman is certain to be accompanied by the already-victorious Eunisses Hernandez (City Council District 1; 🌹) and most likely by Hugo Soto-Martinez (City Council District 13; 🌹) who took the first spot in the primary here. Both are endorsed by DSA Los Angeles.

In other Los Angeles area races where DSA Los Angeles has levied an endorsement, Estefany Casteneda (Centinela Valley Union HS District; 🌹) is likely to win re-election and Rocio Rivas (LAUSD School Board District 2; 🌹) seems well-positioned to take that seat after getting 44% in the primary. I am less sold on Ricardo Martinez (La Puente City Council; 🌹) as he’ll have to unseat at least one incumbent, so I will take the conservative option and say just one hold and one pickup here.

In Los Angeles’s non-endorsed member races, Kelsey Iino (LACCD Board of Trustees Seat 7; 🌹) is a favorite to hold her Los Angeles Community College Board of Trustees seat, which she was appointed to this year. Nikki Perez (Burbank City Council; 🌹) seems to have a good chance of picking up a seat on the Burbank City Council. Aaron Reveles (Montebello Unified School Board; 🌹) will have a tough battle to pick up a seat here, but it’s not unwinnable. Info is scarce for Juan Munoz-Guevara (Lynwood City Council; 🌹) so I also tend toward skepticism for him. I’ll be conservative and expect two wins, two losses in these four races.

In the Bay Area, East Bay DSA has directly thrown their weight behind fellow DSA members Eduardo Martinez (Mayor of Richmond; 🌹), Jamin Pursell (Richmond City Council D4; 🌹); and Nikki Fortunato-Bas (Oakland City Council D2; 🌹). Fortunato-Bass is heavily favored as the incumbent, so at least one victory here is all but a certainty. Martinez and Pursell have tougher races, but the left and progressives generally are abnormally strong in Richmond, CA through the Richmond Progressive Alliance so I think a sweep of all three is—narrowly—the most likely possibility of any. Cautiously optimistic 3-for-3 is my prognosis here.

East Bay has also endorsed the Right to Housing Slate, a pro-tenant slate for the Berkeley Rent Board. The board is currently a 9-0 sweep for pro-tenant candidates, and this is not likely to change in November. Incumbent board member, DSA member, and Slate candidate Soli Alpert (Berkeley Rent Board; 🌹) should thus be joined by four other DSA members here—Nathan Mizell (🌹), Vanessa Danielle Marrero (🌹), Ida Martinac (🌹), and Negeene Mosaed (🌹). While the Slate is a multi-organization effort, all members of it are also DSA members this year.

Due to concerns about several of her stated positions, East Bay DSA is not supporting Janani Ramachandran (Oakland City Council D4; 🌹), who is a member; however, she is the probable favorite for this seat. 2-for-2 seems the most likely.

Remaining California races are non-member, as far as I know. Inland Empire DSA has endorsed Christian Shaughnessy for San Bernardino Community College Board of Trustees A4 but he seems unlikely to prevail. Finally, East Bay DSA has endorsed the Oakland Education Association’s slate for Oakland Unified Board of Education, consisting of candidates Jennifer Brouhard (District 2), Pecolia Manigo (District 4), and Valarie Bachelor (District 6). Given the success of OEA in 2020—three of its four candidates won, and the one who lost did so by just 6%—it seems reasonable to expect a sweep. Pencil in 3-for-4 here.

Colorado Incumbent DSA members Julie Gonzales of Denver DSA (SD-34; 🌹) and Andrew Boesenecker of Fort Collins DSA (HD-53; 🌹) face minimal re-election opposition and are certain to be joined by Denver DSA’s Javier Mabrey (HD-01; 🌹) and Elisabeth Epps (HD-06; 🌹) in the state legislature next year. This will represent a doubling of existing DSA strength. An easy 4-for-4 here.

Just down south, Colorado Springs DSA member John Jarrell (El Paso County Commissioner D5; 🌹) is hoping to become the chapter’s first elected official and mark the first socialist inroads to this conservative-but-bluing county. He will face a steep climb however due to local gerrymandering and residual conservatism down the ballot. Represented by a Republican, the district is roughly 49-47 Biden and was not won in any other 2020 race by Democrats, nor by Jared Polis in the 2018 gubernatorial race. I expect this to be a loss, although possibly a close one.

Delaware The breakout chapter of the year is Delaware DSA. With primaries cycled out, just one of their eleven endorsements is disfavored, and they are set to elect three additional members on top of their incumbent two. Madinah Wilson-Anton (HD-26; 🌹) and Eric Morrison (HD-27; 🌹) easily beat back primary challenges, while DeShanna Neal (HD-13; 🌹), Sophie Phillips (HD-18; 🌹), and Kyra Hoffner (SD-14; 🌹) won in an upset, a blowout, and a close contest respectively. None of their districts will be close in November, and this should be an easy 5-for-5 sweep.

Nor will the districts of Larry Lambert (HD-07); Sharae'a Moore (HD-08); Melissa Minor-Brown (HD-17); Kerri Harris (HD-32); or Marie Pinkney (SD-13). All five non-members here should likewise be safe. The only district in question is that of Susan Clifford (HD-39), running in a heavily Republican district centered on Seaford, Delaware. Clifford is the first Democrat to even run here in over a decade and it is in one of Delaware’s most conservative districts, which should give you a good idea of what to expect. I am calling this a loss; I do not think Clifford will win, but if she does it will rank among the substantial DSA upsets in recent history.

District of Columbia There is relatively little intrigue this year in D.C.’s races, as you would expect from a one-party region where the Democratic primary determines most elections. Metro DC DSA member Zachary Parker (District of Columbia City Council D5; 🌹) should have no difficulty in his overwhelmingly Democratic seat, as he is facing only a token Republican. Oye Owolewa (Shadow US Representative, DC; 🌹) has it similarly, due to DC’s overall hyper-Democratic voting pattern. Non-endorsed member Ben Williams (DC State Board of Education Ward 1; 🌹) does not appear to be facing anybody at all despite his race being officially non-partisan, and so will walk over. Unfortunately Green Party candidate and DSA member David Schwartzman (DC Council At-Large; 🌹) is contesting his race via write-in, so he is non-viable. 3-for-4 here, easily.

I am aware of an incumbent DSA member Advisory Neighborhood Commissioner, Dieter Lehmann Morales (ANC 1A02; 🌹). Hayden Gise (ANC 3C01; 🌹) and Quentin Colon Roosevelt (ANC 3D03; 🌹) will also be future ANC members.

Iowa Iowa should maintain its second elected DSA official this year, as Iowa City DSA member and incumbent Jon Green (Johnson County Board of Supervisors; 🌹) is running for re-election to the Board of Supervisors for this heavily Democratic county. Although the voting system is wacky and everyone serves at-large, there is no reason to expect Green to lose his seat. 1-for-1.

Illinois Illinois will almost certainly elect its second state legislative DSA member, as long-time DSA member Rachel Ventura (SD-43; 🌹) looks to join non-endorsed incumbent and quiet member Robert Peters (SD-13; 🌹). Ventura’s race is contested but Democratic gerrymandering in Illinois should see her prevail; Peters is not even contested, as you might expect for a Chicago seat. On the west side of Chicago, DSA member Anthony Joel Quezada (Cook County Commissioner D8; 🌹) will also cruise to a seat on the Cook County Board of Commissioners.

It’s hard to tell due to a combination of primary turnout and redistricting, but in Will County, at least one of Destinee Ortiz (Will County Board D9; 🌹) and Andrew Englebrecht (Will County Board D4; 🌹) are probably favored to win election to the board. I’ll go with one out of two here, conservatively.

Maine Little can be said of Maine, as DSA member Grayson Lookner (HD-37; 🌹) is unopposed for his re-election campaign here.

Maryland There’s not much to say here, as incumbent Metro DC DSA member Vaughn Stewart (HD-19; 🌹) and endorsed member Gabriel Acevero (HD-39; 🌹) are near certain to win re-election. 2-for-2 is the presumed outcome here. Elsewhere, non-endorsed member Kristin Mink (Montgomery County Council D5; 🌹) is almost assured to join fellow non-endorsed member Marc Elrich (Montgomery County Executive; 🌹) as a Montgomery County elected official. Expect 4-for-4 in Maryland.

Massachusetts Boston DSA’s Erika Uyterhoeven (HD-Middlesex 27th; 🌹) and on-the-fringes member Mike Connolly (HD-Middlesex 26th; 🌹) will win re-election by acclamation. I am aware of no other candidates up this year in Massachusetts.

Michigan Detroit DSA’s Rashida Tlaib (MI-12; 🌹) will cruise to re-election in her new 12th congressional district, and is probably the least interesting race on the board in Michigan, where a plethora of non-endorsed members are running. Most prominent among these is a truly bizarre one: “progressive” multi-millionaire Shri Thanedar (MI-13; 🌹) is apparently a lifetime DSA member, and thus is nearly certain to become the sixth DSA member in Congress on a technicality this November. However, there are plenty of better examples than Thanedar on the ballot as well. Despite none of them being endorsed, members Abraham Aiyash (HD-09; 🌹), Natalie Price (HD-05; 🌹), Dylan Wegela (HD-26; 🌹), and Jimmie Wilson, Jr. (HD-32; 🌹) are all virtually certain to win their state legislative races, meaning Michigan will have four socialists (of varying commitment to DSA) serving in its state legislature beginning in 2023.

Incumbent county commissioner and DSA member Charlie Cavell (Oakland County Commissioner D19; 🌹) should easily win re-election, while former state legislator and DSA member Yousef Rabhi (Washtenaw County Commission D8; 🌹) will face minimal Republican opposition in being elected to this central Ann Arbor seat. In nearby Ypsilanti, Huron Valley DSA endorsed Desirae Simmons (Ypsilanti City Council D3; 🌹) is likely to be elected, as her only opposition in this extremely Democratic city is an independent candidate. The most ambiguous race on the board is probably Jeremy Lapham (Ann Arbor Public Schools Board of Education; 🌹), who is running in a 13-way race for four seats. I’d assume loss here. Overall, Michigan looks 9 wins and 1 loss or better.

Minnesota Minnesota will gain a DSA state legislator, as Zaynab Mohamed (SD-63; 🌹) is set to join incumbent, endorsed members Athena Hollins (HD-66B; 🌹), Jen McEwen (SD-08; 🌹), and Omar Fateh (SD-62; 🌹). McEwen is a member and endorsement of the Duluth-based Twin Ports DSA, while the rest are Twin Cities DSA members. In the suburbs of the Twin Cities, endorsed member Aaron Wagner (Robbinsdale City Council Ward 4; 🌹) is probably a moderate favorite for this seat after taking first in the primary against incumbent councilman Pat Backen.

Non-member endorsement Samantha Sencer-Mura (HD-63A) should have no difficulty with election, leaving other non-member Mai Chong Xiong (Ramsey County Commissioner D6) the sole tossup race of this lot. I lean yes due to Xiong’s coming first in the primary here, but I would also not be surprised to see her lose. A very cautiously optimistic sweep of all 7 races is my guess here.

Missouri After beating back a primary challenge effortlessly, St. Louis DSA member and DSA endorsement Cori Bush (MO-01; 🌹) will be easily re-elected. The more interesting St. Louis race this year is Megan Ellyia Green (St. Louis Board of Aldermen President; 🌹), who is also running with St. Louis DSA’s backing. Although the primary is not a reliable indicator of what might happen in November, Green is the moderate favorite for reasons I’ve covered on this blog. Both races being DSA wins is thus my prognosis here.

North Carolina This year North Carolina appears to have just one endorsed campaign, which is Joshua Bradley (Raleigh City Council at-large). Bradley is a Socialist Party USA and Green Party member, so you can perhaps think of this as a left-unity bid. Still, I don’t see any circumstance where Bradley prevails; he pulled only 10% in the District A race in 2019, a race with only a fraction of votes that will be cast here.

New Mexico Santa Fe DSA also endorsed one campaign this year, making it New Mexico’s only: Dev Atma Khalsa (Santa Fe County Magistrate Court Division 2). Khalsa is unopposed, so this is an easy win.

Nevada Nevada has no officially endorsed campaigns, but incumbent Tick Segerblom (Clark County Commission District E; 🌹) is a DSA member who should easily win re-election this year. Courtney Ketter (North Las Vegas Township Justice of the Peace District 2; 🌹) has already won election due to his primary serving as the general election, and will take office later this year. Two wins on the board here.

New Hampshire New Hampshire has at least three DSA members that I am aware of who are on the ballot in November. All are incumbents and likely or certain to win re-election even in the worst circumstances and accounting for New Hampshire’s wild voting system. Eric Gallager (HD-Merrimack 21; 🌹) is running without opposition, Catherine Sofikitis (HD-Hillsborough 7; 🌹) is running in a district that has only voted for a Republican—incumbent Governor Sununu—once in the past three cycles, and Ellen Read (HD-Rockingham 10; 🌹) is in a similar but even bluer district than Sofikitis. Little reason to believe anything besides 3-for-3 here.

New York New York is one of the big enchiladas this year; because of the primaries and districts DSA chapters contested, a near-sweep of races is a certainty for DSA general election candidates here. Endorsements and NYC-DSA member candidates Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY-14; 🌹), Zohran Mamdani (AD-36; 🌹), Emily Gallagher (AD-50; 🌹), Marcela Mitaynes (AD-51; 🌹), Phara Souffrant Forrest (AD-57; 🌹), Julia Salazar (SD-18; 🌹), Jabari Brisport (SD-25; 🌹), and Kristen Gonzalez (SD-59; 🌹) will all win election or re-election without trouble. Non-endorsed members Jamaal Bowman (NY-16; 🌹) and Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas (AD-34; 🌹) are of course in a similar boat.

Mid-Hudson Valley DSA member and endorsement Sarahana Shrestha (AD-103; 🌹) will also have no difficulty. Tiffany Chen Kumar (Ithaca Common Council Ward 4; 🌹) of Ithaca DSA is outright running unopposed.

The one anomaly is Katie Sims (Mayor of Ithaca; 🌹), an independent and the other Ithaca DSA candidate. She probably does not have a path to victory, and I do not see her winning personally. In 2019, a socialist-aligned independent candidate received about 22% for the mayor’s office and I suspect Sims will receive similar in this ultra-Democratic city.

Oklahoma There’s not much to say here. Non-member Mauree Turner (HD-88) received Oklahoma City DSA’s endorsement, and will easily win re-election.

Oregon Non-endorsed member Farrah Chaichi (OR HD-35; 🌹) is all but certain to become the first DSA member that I know of to represent any office in Oregon. This district has not seen a Democrat get worse than 59% of the vote in the past four election cycles.

Pennsylvania There’s little suspense to be had in Pennsylvania this year, as Elizabeth Fiedler (HD-184; 🌹) and Rick Krajewski (HD-188; 🌹) of Philadelphia DSA are both in extremely safe seats. Sara Innamorato (HD-21; 🌹), a non-endorsed DSA member who was previously elected by Pittsburgh DSA, should have little difficulty either on the other side of the state. The state legislative caucus here will remain at four.

Rhode Island Rhode Island’s races are not in suspense either; here, though, the status quo has been shaken up. On top of incumbents David Morales (HD-07; 🌹) and Sam Bell (SD-05; 🌹) of Providence DSA being re-elected, the chapter can look forward to a third state legislative member, Enrique Sanchez (HD-09; 🌹) taking office next year. The chapter also expanded its influence on the Providence City Council, where Miguel Sanchez (Providence City Council Ward 6; 🌹, also a brother of Enrique, contrary to my presumption) cruised to election in an open seat. He joins Rachel Miller (the 13th Ward representative) on that body. 4-for-4 here.

Texas Austin DSA is the only chapter representing Texas DSA members in elections this year, as it has backed Andrew Gonzales (Austin ISD Board of Trustees District 6; 🌹) in a competitive local race against incumbent trustee Geronimo Rodriguez, Jr. I think this is more likely to be a loss than a win, but not by much.

In another local race further south, Sylvia Campos (Corpus Christi City Council D2; 🌹) is a currently-unendorsed—although it is possible this will change since Corpus Christi DSA is awaiting candidate responses for their questionnaire—DSA member running for city council in Corpus Christi. Campos has twice run for this district, and improved from an initial 60-40 loss in 2018 to a very narrow 52-48 loss in 2020. As this is now an open seat I actually think Campos has a good shot at winning. I have this as a win.

Austin DSA also has member Greg Casar (TX-35; 🌹) running for Congress in the new 35th congressional district; they endorsed, then unendorsed him earlier this year, but he remains an active member of the chapter. As Casar is all but certain to win this race, there will be a minimum of six DSA members in Congress next year. Texas will also see a minimum 1-for-3 record.

Vermont Vermont’s system tends to produce hilariously uncontested results in many of its districts, and there’s no exception here. Champlain Valley DSA endorsement and fellow member Tanya Vyhovsky (Chittenden Central District; 🌹) should easily be elected to the Vermont Senate, while CVDSA member Brian Cina (HD Chittenden-15; 🌹) will walk over in November due to no opposition. The same is true of non-member CVDSA endorsement Kate Logan (HD Chittenden-16).

Wisconsin Finally, in Wisconsin, gerrymandering and a general lack of democracy thanks to Republican rule leave Milwaukee DSA members Darrin Madison (AD-10; 🌹) and Ryan Clancy (AD-19; 🌹) uncontested, ensuring two socialists will serve in the Wisconsin House of Representatives next year.[2]

References

  1. ↑ Brief November 8th post-mortem dated November 12, 2022 by Alyaza Birze (accessed June 8, 2024)
  2. ↑ [1]
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